The recent Russian attempted coup by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has created some chaos in Russia. Prigozhin was furious at the leaders of Russia’s Ministry of Defense, whom he repeatedly accused of sending tens of thousands of Russian soldiers to certain death through their corruption, incompetence, and cowardice. Over 20,000 of his own fighters were killed in the bloody battle for Bakhmut – a town of only 70,000 inhabitants before the war. He publicly blamed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for Russia’s casualties and battlefield struggles. This led him to try to a mild coup, which ultimately failed and led to his exile to Belarus. While the coup did little to impact Russia today, it did show that the nation is in serious chaos with the war in Ukraine.

This was by far the most serious threat to Putin’s 23-year rule. On the one hand, you’re not supposed to be able to defy Putin in Russia this way and get away with it. Yet the men who shot down and killed an estimated 13 Russian pilots on their way to Moscow were pardoned. And the man who openly defied Putin’s orders, discredited his rationale for the war in Ukraine, and whom Putin declared a traitor on public television, is still alive (at least for now). Putin has jailed and killed people for a lot less, so this makes him look weak before the Russian public and the elites.

On the other hand, Putin’s regime was tested over the weekend, and the regime ultimately held together. Yes, there were a lot of people who didn’t fire to stop Wagner troops from advancing, but there were virtually no defections inside the Russian government, the military, or among elites. The government is still functioning normally, and the war in Ukraine is going the way it did before the mutiny. Putin is more vulnerable on the back of it, but that’s more a long-term than an immediate issue. The likelihood of regime change in Russia remains near zero … until it happens. But these events show that the risks are more than initially thought.

How does this coup impact the war in Ukraine? The incident is a problem for Putin’s credibility with elites and the Russian public, and this political vulnerability could make him more sensitive to major battlefield losses in the coming months. If we get to a point later in the summer or fall where Ukraine starts to threaten Crimea or the land bridge, the risk of a major Russian escalation (such as blowing up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant or using a tactical nuclear weapon) in response would go up.

Biblical Connection: How does this chaos impact Russia in prophecy? When the Ukraine war began, many students of Biblical prophecy saw this aggression as a sign that Russia could be moving toward the Gog-Magog prophecy of Ezekiel 38-39. However, with the weakness of the Russian forces in Ukraine, it is clear that Russia is not as strong military as many thought. If Putin feels threatened or feels desperate, then he really only has two options. First, he may try to sue for peace and turn his resources to reestablishing his strength in his own nation. This would seem to point away from more Russian aggression in the near future. However, if Putin feels pressure to continue to show Russia is strong on the world stage, it could lead to more Russian aggression, which could lead to something like the Gog-Magog situation, especially if Putin turns to Iran to help its military exploits across the globe.

PRAY: Pray that the situation in Ukraine would end peacefully and that Russian aggression would be limited and halted.